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Performance of the Residential market in 2014

In a residential property market as small and quirky as Alderney's, there are real difficulties in producing any sort of authoritative analysis. This health warning aside though, it is important for sellers and buyers alike that some sort of sense is made from the transactional data now available to us.

The Alderney Land Registry has been producing price paid data for a full year now and I have been tracking such sales data as is discoverable for two years prior to that. The graph below shows average sale prices and sales volumes over that period -:

A few comments. First of all, it seems clear that the Alderney residential market is now acting entirely conventionally and obeying the fundamental laws of supply and demand. Demand, as evidenced by increasing sales volume, has been stimulated by a steep downwards price correction reducing from the previous price peaks. To understand more about these pre-2012 price peaks see my blog of the 6th December 2012 (below).

Year on year, the data suggests price falls of 29% (2012 to 2013) and 16% (2013 to 2014). This is completely contrary to market data from the UK in the same period of course - more on that in a later blog perhaps. The number of sales in that same period has exactly doubled.

The pace of the fall in prices is undoubtedly slowing but it remains to be seen whether the price correction has reached its floor. My own view is that it probably hasn't quite yet but that the pace of the reduction in prices will continue to slow during 2015, as will the extent of the increase in sales volume. In other words, I see each curve on the graph continuing in the same general direction but with a flatter trajectory in both cases.

What does this mean for buyers and sellers? For buyers, Alderney continues to be your market (of which more in a later blog) with good value property to be had, although I think that much of the 'low-hanging fruit' has probably been picked over the past two years.

For sellers, the market remains tough but if you can render your property one of those 'good value' ones then there is a very good chance that a buyer will be found. The key, of course, is a realistic pricing strategy to reflect the prevailing market conditions, and an acceptance of the new Alderney property market reality. An objective professional valuation is the key here – not a valuation telling you what you want to hear and aimed solely at securing the instruction to sell.

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